Gnosis will launch the DAO forecast markets linked to the prediction markets

The Gnosis team announced the launch of GnosisDAO, which is based on ideas of futarchy. It assumes that any change in the protocol becomes a forecasting market, acting as a sort of barometer of evaluation and influencing the final decision of users.

The futarchy model was first described by economist Robin Hanson of George Mason University. It involves a two-tier vote, where the initiative is initially supported/rejected and then a vote for the necessary set of actions to implement it.

In the second stage, two prediction markets are created, each containing one asset: one market that corresponds to the action to be taken and the other to be rejected.

If the offer is accepted, all transactions on the rejection market are cancelled and on the acceptance market after a certain time each user receives a certain amount in tokens based on a futuristically chosen success metric. Conversely, if the offer is rejected.

Markets can operate for some time, and a policy with a higher average token price wins in the end. Vitalik Butterin described this algorithm in 2014.

„Users are able to influence [voting] with their trading decision: whether they will buy or sell a Gnosis token (GNO) if the offer is implemented. Essentially, this is a direct way to get ‚feedback on the offer‘ from the market,“ Gnosis co-founder Martin Keppelmann explained to CoinDesk.

According to him, DAO’s voting proposals can be diverse. From changes in the road map, reserve management, launching new initiatives to financing public goods. This form opens up a wide space for cooperation and experimentation, he added.

The team will allocate 150,000 ETH and 8,000,000 GNO reserves to GnosisDAO for such markets with an eight-year allocation period. In the first phase, 1000 ETH and 20 000 GNOs will be allocated.

DAO will be launched with three offers:

  • creation of the second version of the Gnosis protocol;
  • creation of a control token for DAO called SAFE;
  • a 5 % GNO circular for active GnosisDAO participants.

Recall that in July the Gnosis protocol will launch the Omen prediction markets platform.

In September, the crypt currency hedge fund Arca offered the Gnosis team to return the money to investors after reviewing the results of its activities.